Don't Be Conservative

The finance guy in a pitch I heard today used the old line, "these numbers are conservative." He went on to explain to us why it was that we should not believe his numbers because he was going to outperform his own projections. I always wonder why it is that companies insist on claiming that their numbers are "conservative." I would rather know what the company really thinks it is going to be able to achieve, rather than what it thinks it will be able to outperform. Ultimately, the key to meaningful financials is meaningful assumptions. And if a pitch is interesting enough, we'll push on those assumptions to try to determine if the projections are realistic or not. Saying that they are "conservative" won't change how we view those assumptions. But it will probably make us more skeptical to start.

Comments

[Sean Hanley]

I see no problem with conservative projections - market conditions dictate that it makes sense to play safe. You can have meaningful but 'conservative' projections.

However, pitching that you will outperform your own projections shows immaturity.

[aa]

I'd do David one better: I've observed that the more a team pitches its projections as conservative, the more aggressive the projections tend to actually be.

[Ven Reddy]

Having been on both sides of the table, the phrase "these numbers are conservative" is uttered by the entrepreneur to show the VC:

What a hot market space the company is eyeing and (more importantly) after you fund us "we will beat those numbers."

OR

There is _no_ way you would ever believe our original numbers, so we'll play it conservatively and not get questioned/ripped into.

[ビブラム]

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[cheap turf cleats]

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