The End Of The Laptop?

I hate to say it, but at the end of the article all I could think of was "this is a perfect thing for Apple to fix".

I know Steve says he doesn't want to tackle phones, but boy, it's screaming for a solution like you describe.

I seldom disagree with you - but you couldn't be more wrong about laptops.

Certain technologies never move beyond early adopters into mass acceptance.

I've written sales force automation software for smartphones. I found out that the salespeople would rather carry a laptop and ditch the expensive smartphone for their old lighter one. A lasting painful lesson in terms of my own money spent developing said product :<)!

There are comprimises geeks make without thinking (almost a total disconnect) that the average person just won't make.

What I'm looking for actually is a second laptop to use when I'm travelling. Something with a 10 inch screen and no DVD, no floppy etc around 2 lbs max. Of course I want it to be under $1000, preferably under $750.

My geek friends want them too. Average user will see them and have no problem wanting one as well. Because there will be zero adoption curve and it will run software they already know. Smarthphones will face a backlash and laptop adoption will just keep growing.

Rick

I disagree too. I use my laptop more than the desktop even at home, because the desktop - although it has more storage, a bigger screen, better ergonomics and is much faster - is just too damn loud for casual use.

Fix that, and I could maybe consider using it as a wireless server. For which, however, 802.11b isn't really fast enough. 802.11g or some future standard might be, I don't know.

But then I spend two hours a day on the train, during which I do most of my weblog writing and work on other projects on my laptop. I don't see how a home server is going to help me with that.

I am a laptop only user but have found that a Palm wireless solution is extremely effective while travelling. Not only can you get email, but you can receive office attachments in their native formats, makes changes and send them back! People never know you are working on a handheld...

It's no where near as fast as a computer, but gets the job done and is much easier to deal with in many situations. As network speeds increase, this will only get better and better.

One big advantage that laptops have is that they sit on your lap! You can use them anywhere around the house. Phones and PDA don't have that natural hands-free fit.

A quality keyboard and good display are the keys. A laptop that turns on faster than a TV and uses AA batteries that last a long time, and is wirelessly connected seems ideal. I think we could lose the clamshell hinge and start to see smaller lighter form-factors, though. I'm surprised that there aren't more choices out there.

One example of a nice alternative to Windows laptops is the Dana from AlphaSmart. It's Palm based.

Anyone still remember the PSION 5MX? It was a clamshell PDA that was really well designed as a compact but very user friendly device. Its flaw? It was way too early. In 1999, PDAs weren't ready for "real work" (no power, memory or connectivity) so glorified "contact managers" ruled the space.

Enhanced with the current technologies (hi res LCD, 500Mhz processor, 512MB flash, wifi/ Bluetooth/GPRS), the 5MX would immediately become a mobile user's work horse on the go.

The current state of PDAs are just toys IMHO. The Sony UX50 is a step in the right direction, but you really need a real keyboard to do any productive work.

There were a few other clamshell devices after the PSION, namely the HP Jornada and the Nokia Communicator.. but they lack the elegance of the PSION 5MX/Revo in one way or another.

I have thought about this myself, but I don't think it will be quite the same.

I have a small laptop for most of what I do: email, web, word processing, and the like.

I still have a desktop. It does multi-duty: for photo and video processing(the big screen is great), file serving, backing up the laptop and hosting the shared printer.

A PDA or smartphone is has too small for a keyboard and display for do anything more then minor changes to existing documents or for making short notes to yourself to expand on later with more resources.

I am beginning to think that the PDA form factor of fits-in-a-shirt-pocket size is too small, and the tablet PC form of clipboard sized is too big. Something in the middle might be better.

I also wonder if the personal computer won't break up into several separate components like a home theatre system. A smartphone that handles all the communications stuff with an other function, like some contact and calendar storage, an iPod for big storage and some other function like playing music, now all that is left is a display and keyboard that can connect all these things together and an OS that can leverage all the processors together so the combination is stronger then the parts alone.

I'm going to also disagree with this posting. I'm usually not a reader of this blog, but I was linked via a "Fierce Wireless" email today.

I just made the "switch" to Mac by purchasing a Powerbook G4 15" with a superdrive. I've had PC laptops before, as supplements to my home desktop wireless network. I also have a TiVo where streaming MP3s are played over my home audio system.

I don't know how a laptop will be replaced by a PDA. I can go into a Starbucks, open up my 5.3 pound (quite light) Mac and surf the web, listen to my iTunes playlists, and create DVDs on my 1280x768 bright screen. To do this on a PDA-phone as the author's article described would require bringing in a detachable keyboard (which I'd have to stow in my backpack), a detachable monitor-adapter so I could review my photos on a proper screen which hopefully Starbucks would supply, and enough disk to store all my data.

I'm not so sure that the laptop is dead (or dying).

Cheers,
Brian

Human factors will keep notebooks or something similar from going extinct. From my experience supporting a sales force, a PDA screen is just too small to do much with. We launched a project where we gave some of the salesman iPaqs. Their initial enthusiasm faded rapidly and they gave the iPaqs back. They prepared customer quotes on a complex Excel spreadsheet, which didn't work well on the small screen. Having to carry around fold-up everything will be more complication and bulk than your typical non-techie will want to deal with. The big push from sales reps, field reps, and top executives is for something simple and light that can do the job. A PDA can't do the job by itself. I do expect that traditional PDAs will be absorbed into the new breed of smartphones. That will provide an ideal platform for simpler, PIM type functions. However, more complex apps and full size documents need a screen larger than a playing card - otherwise the user winds up in scroll bar hell. From the little bit I've seen of the pure tablet platform, I think tablets have the potential to displace notebooks. They are thinner and lighter than notebooks, they have a good screen size, and you can even write in them like in a day planner. Executive nirvana!

No!! It's all about I/O. The limiting factors on the notebook are the display size/weight and keyboard size. Voice recognition solves keyboard size limitation in a couple of years, but near eye displays are further off. Any computing device that you can heft to your ear will not have a sufficiently large display to be practical for many, many applications. What you will see is that Blue Tooth or similar technology will cause the mic/speaker in the phone to be separated from the processor and radio. These will either get really minaturized or go into a notebook or smaller PDA type computing device depending on the display/ processing/ storage requirements of the user. Bottom line, however, is that for the forseeable future, many users will need reasonably sized displays and it will be easier and cheaper to integrate comms, processing, and storage with the display (i.e. a notebook) than it will be to carry around a separate display. Hope this alleviates your confusion on this subject.

Your post about no longer needing your laptop is on the mark. Two developments recently that are of note that support this.

1) www.mirra.com This wonderful Linux based box is so simple to use. Go to any PC (soon PDA also when they do a web browser interface update hopefully) that is connected to the Internet and you can access the files from anywhere you are.

2) The growth in size and lowering of price of thumb drives (i.e. San Disk Cruzer) is a way of not lugging the laptop while carrying my files. I can go on anyone's PC, plug in the USB based drive, do my work, access my files, and when I get back to my PC, sync the file that have been updated. I even have a Outlook Express client on it that I can use at an Internet Cafe, which wipes out any trail of password or cookies that may get left behind to provide added security.

Andy

In 3-5 years, Nanotechnology will nano'aterize every conceivable gadgets you are using today. I believe this is the next evolution in tech, biotech, pharma, etc... now is the time to start investing in the nano-startups!

as far as the sidebar 'display function' goes, while treo equivalent may be none, think existing Q-VGA cellphones that have 320x240 resolution, coming (if not already), to a wireless carrier of your choice soon...

Google linked me to this page, nice reading