The Future in Review

Martin Tobias, FIRE 2004 Hot Spot comments...

Mark, thanks for hosting this great event. I really enjoyed the event last year. In fact for me it was the watershed event signaling Tech is back! Based on the number of imitators and the rise in the markets since then, I would say your timing was impeccable as usual!

Last year I stuck my neck out with some pretty specific predictions for the next 2-5 years rather than the Macro view that many have taken. Time for a report card on those and a couple of new ones. Out of my 10 specific predictions of things that WILL happen last year, my record is 6 of 10 right, 2 inconclusive and 2 dead wrong.

What WILL happen, last year’s predictions

1. The PC economics of commodity hardware will come to networking gear.
How doing?
- Intel solidifying it’s lead in design wins here.
- IP Fabrics Alpha to customers in June.
- RIGHT On track.

2. The first meaningful products will be delivered to consumers from nano-technology.
How doing?
- Nano-Care wrinkle free pants at EddieBauer.
- Gap, Old Navy, Nike, and Perry Ellis are also shipping products today.
- Defense will drive Metal Rubber from NanoSonic into the market by next year.
- RIGHT On track.

3. The interlopers who came to technology companies from selling toothpaste would leave.
How doing?
- The last wave washed out.
- Quality of teams up.
- After the Google IPO more will come.
- This started in the right direction, but I am afraid will go backward again.
- INCONCLUSIVE.

4. There will be VC bankruptcies.
How doing?
- A few VC consolidations, some fund give backs, lots of partners “retiring”, office closures.
- Fund size down overall. Smaller funds mean smaller VC firms.
- Brobeck and VLG closed.
- Still have a couple years for the tail on many funds to stop wagging.
- RIGHT. On track (unfortunately).

5. Real broadband applications will be delivered and used in meaningful numbers.
How doing?
- Last year 20M broadband households.
- In April Pew said 48M adults have broadband connections at home!
- For now, simple speed is driving.
- Itunes and this year video on demand, VOIP will drive broadband.
- RIGHT, on track.

6. SPAM will be a thing of the past.
How doing:
- Well Bill Gates says he will take care of Spam by 2006.
- April was the first month ISP’s recorded over 80% of their mail SPAM!
- Wait for this afternoon and my Panel "SPAM and the future of e-mail as we know it".
- Boy was I WRONG on this one.

7. Instant Messaging becomes a real business application.
How doing?
- Valuations on private companies are up, but real business applications are still lacking.
- Mostly compliance driven.
- INCONCLUSIVE.

8. There will be no carrier model for WIFI.
How doing?
- I apologized to Larry from Cometa for this one last year. Seems like it came to pass sooner than I expected at least for Cometa.
- Commercial hotspots went from about 12,000 in 2002 to 28,000 in 2003, but private hotspots are estimated to be 10X this number.
- No-one is making money and free sites are growing faster.
- Park Associates in late 2003 showed less than 5% of internet users have tried a public hotspot and less than 3% of THOSE have become subscribers. That is 15/100 of 1% subscribers.
- Joe Laszlo of Jupiter Research said it best: “Paraphrasing [Federal Reserve chairman] Alan Greenspan, the degree of exuberance about the revenue potential of public hotspots borders on the irrational”.
- RIGHT. I am right on this one.

9. Round 2 of telco bankruptcies.
How doing?
- Can you say WorldCom? More to come.
- RIGHT

10. There will be no IPO market for small unprofitable tech companies.
How doing?
- I see lots in registration, all waiting for Google. I guess hope springs eternal.
- WRONG. I am wrong here.

Two NEW predictions that WILL happen in next 2-5 years.
1. Blogging software will gain significant share in the web authoring and content management business.
- >2.5M blogs now, growing double digits per month.
- Blogs have already made a meaningful impact on the Geocities and Yahoo hosted template business.
- Look for them to move upmarket into Enterprise.

2. Microsoft will NOT ship Longhorn.
- Already delayed it to 2007. I think it is 2009.
- Took out half the features including everything about WinFS.
- They may ship Indigo sooner.

What I HOPE happens:

Last year I had hoped to decrease technology footprint in my life. I completely failed on this one! I bought 7 new computers, 5 new digital cameras, two new camcorders, 5 music players, 8 new home entertainment devices and became an addicted blogger. Some things never change.

I only have ONE thing that I hope happens in the next year! I said it last year.

The next president should make energy independence the #1 national goal over the next 10 years. Just like Kennedy did with the space race. The economic and security benefits will lay the foundation for another century of American leadership. If we don’t do this, we risk being passed on all fronts except military.